Transforming the World

through Mathematics

Current Paper of the Semester

 

Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies

Luzie Helfmann, Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad, Philipp Lorenz-Spreen & Christof Schütte

Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. The changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of “influencers” are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel framework for opinion dynamics that can accommodate various versions of opinion dynamics as well as account for different roles. Numerical simulations of instances of this framework show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation. The framework allows mean-field approximations. Based on the mean-field approximations, we can study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, our framework allows us to demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to a more flexible modelling approach in opinion dynamics and a better understanding of the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem.

Bildschirmfoto 2024-04-01 um 09.22.22

Interview with Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad, co-author of the article

As a start, what is your academic background, and how did you come to this project

I studied mathematics and my main research interests are developing and applying mathematical models to understand real-world systems. Social systems, in particular, I find very exciting due to the complexity of human behavior and social interactions. This field got a new perspective with the appearance of online social media, which was our main driver of the project.

 

Can you describe in a few sentences –  for non-mathematicians – what the article is about?

In this work, we study how people shape their opinions in their online social space, under the influence of traditional media and the emerging role of influencers. In order to understand these different roles and their impact on public opinion formation, we introduced a new mathematical model and showed how it could be used to develop strategies of media and/or influencers to prevent fragmentation of the opinion landscape and polarization in the society.

 

Besides mathematics, what other disciplines participated in the project?

This paper is a joint work of MATH+ scientists with Philipp Lorenz-Spreen from the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, who is a physicist and computational social scientist researching the self-organized online discourse and its impact on democracies.

 

What could be (is) the applied aspect of the project? 

Our work can be applied to learn what are the possible causes of opinion polarization in a society and what could be effective strategies to prevent this.

 

What was the most fun in your research?

I really enjoyed the interdisciplinary aspect of this project and how it is connected to our everyday life!

 

Last but not least, what are the next steps concerning your research?

We are currently working on adjusting and applying our model to available online social media data. We are very excited to see which insights we will get and to which research adventure these will bring us!

 

Thank you for your time!