Björn Goldenbogen (HU)
01.01.2021 − 31.12.2021
Based on our individualized, geospatially precise, demography referenced agent-based model for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we will explore strategies for coarse-graining of ABMs as basis for essential spatial extension and improve the detailed representation of human behavior and analyze the relation between microscopic and macroscopic behavior.
To create an ABM for infection transmission and deseas progression in a real community, we use public geographic data (openstreetmap), classify present locations into six different types with one type being home, assigned households and agents to these homes, and formulate daily routines for each of those agents, specifying the time at which agent visits which location. This threefold dependence – agent, location, and time – is the basis for stochastic interactions between two selected agents and stochastic infection transmission between those agents. The resulting interaction patterns create dynamic networks, which can be described with graph theory. Aim of the project is to simplify the dynamic network while preserving its structure and its impact on the transmission dynamic.
Simplififcation of the ABM through to reduction or coarse-graining of the interaction or infection networks might allow for faster analysis of the transmission in smaller communities and or enables the analysis of larger communities or for extended time periods. Further we try to identify hitherto unidentified patterns in the infection transmision.
Goldenbogen, B., Adler, S. O.,Bodeit O., Wodke J. A. H., Escalera-Fanjul, X., Korman, A., Krantz, M., Bonn, L., Morán-Torres, R., Haffner, J. E. L., Karnetzki, M., Maintz, I., Mallis, L., Prawitz, H., Segelitz, P. S., Seeger, M., Linding, R., Klipp, E., (2020). Geospatial precision simulations of community confined human interactions during SARS-CoV-2 transmission reveals bimodal intervention outcomes. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089235
Goldenbogen, B., Adler, S. O., Bodeit O., Wodke J. A. H., Escalera-Fanjul, X., Korman, A., Krantz, M., Bonn, L., Morán-Torres, R., Haffner, J. E. L., Karnetzki, M., Maintz, I., Mallis, L., Prawitz, H., Segelitz, P. S., Seeger, M., Linding, R., Klipp, E., (2020). Optimality in COVID-19 vaccination strategies determined by heterogeneity in human-human interaction networks. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.16.20248301