Max von Kleist
Wiep van der Toorn
Robert Koch-Institut (RKI)
RKI (Abt. Für Methodenentwicklung und Forschungsinfrastruktur & Projektgruppe P5)
Freie Universität Berlin, Mathematik und Informatik
We developed a software that enables policy makers to calculate the reduction in transmissibility through quarantine or isolation in combination with arbitrary testing strategies. The user chooses between three different modi [(i) isolation of infected individuals, (ii) management of potentially infected contacts and (iii) quarantine of incoming travelers], while having flexibility in customizing testing strategies and model parameters. The software enables decision makers to tailor calculations specifically to their questions and perform an assessment ‘on the fly’, based on current evidence on infection dynamics.
Underneath, we analytically solve a stochastic transit compartment model of the infection time course, which captures temporal changes in test sensitivities, incubation- and infectious periods, as well as times to symptom onset using its default parameters.
Using default parameters, we estimated that testing travelers at the point of entry reduces the risk about 4.69 (4.19,4.83) fold for PCR vs. 3.59 (3.22, 3.69) fold for rapid diagnostic tests (RDT, 87% relative sensitivity) when combined with symptom screening. In comparison to 14 days of pure quarantine, 8 (PCR) vs. 10 (RDT) days of pre-test quarantine would be noninferior for incoming travelers as well as for contact person management. De-isolation of infected individuals 11 days after symptom onset reduces the risk by >99fold (7.68,>1012). This tool is freely available from: https://github.com/CovidStrategyCalculator/CovidStrategyCalculator
Modelling, Simulation, Stochastics, Viral Dynamics, Testing Quarantine, Isolation.
RKI, BMBF (01KI2016, 031L0176A), MATH+ EF4-9