Photo: MATH+ event Celebrating Math! on 01 July 2022; BMS Certificate Ceremony at the BBAW, Berlin  |  © MATH+ / Kay Herschelmann

In order to estimate the impact of serious infectious diseases on society and the effects of countermeasures, the use of mathematical models is essential. This year, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has funded six research networks and an overarching coordinating body to establish a modeling network and strengthen modeling competence in Germany. Many MATH+ members are part of this network.

In a joint workshop within the framework of the modeling network for infectious diseases, three possible scenarios for the further development of the Corona dynamics were recently simulated, compared, and analyzed by seven research groups using various models. In the first simulated scenario, it was assumed that no new virus variant would appear in autumn/winter 2022/23. In the second scenario, it was assumed that a new virus variant would become dominant in the considered period. In the third scenario, it was again assumed that a new virus variant would become dominant that could bypass the existing immune protection. The workshop report of the modeling network can be found here (in German): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7126032.

From the Zuse Institute Berlin (ZIB), MATH+ members Tim Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac-Conrad, and Christof Schütte (ZIB president and MATH+ chair) participated with a model from the MODUS-COVID project. This project is being developed in cooperation with the research group of Kai Nagel at TU Berlin, also a MATH+ member. The MODUS-COVID project is funded by the BMBF and the Cluster of Excellence MATH+.

The coordination office of the network is located at the University Medicine Halle (Saale) under the leadership of Junior Professor Alexander Kuhlmann.

Read more about the three scenarios (ZIB website)