The software enables decision-makers to tailor calculations specifically to their questions and perform an assessment ‘on the fly’, based on current evidence on infection dynamics.

In early 2020 COVID-19 turned into a global pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including the isolation of infected individuals, tracing and quarantine of exposed individuals, are decisive tools to prevent onwards transmission and curb fatalities. Strategies that combine NPIs with SARS-CoV-2 testing may help to shorten quarantine durations while being non-inferior with respect to infection prevention. Thus, combined strategies can help to reduce the socio-economic burden of SARS-CoV-2 and increase public acceptance.

The RKI team developed a software that enables policymakers to calculate the reduction in transmissibility through quarantine or isolation in combination with arbitrary testing strategies in the context of contact management, for incoming travelers or in case of a confirmed infection. The user has total flexibility in customizing testing strategies and model parameters.

Underneath, the scientists analytically solve a stochastic transit compartment model of the infection time course, which captures temporal changes in test sensitivities, incubation- and infectious periods, as well as times to symptom onset using its default parameters.

This tool is freely available from: https://github.com/CovidStrategyCalculator/CovidStrategyCalculator

The team of scientists: Wiep van der Toorn, Djin-Ye Oh, Daniel Bourquain, Janine Michel, Eva Krause, Andreas Nitsche, Max von Kleist (project head, MATH+ member)

(This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed yet.)

Read the full article (medrxiv website)

The research project is also listed on the MATH+ website for Covid-19 related research projects.